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AUD/JPY- View Weakness as an Opportunity

AUD/JPY- View Weakness as an Opportunity

2016-07-21 17:21:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
  • AUD/JPY in correction- move to offer favorable long-entries
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels


AUD/JPY- View Weakness as an Opportunity

Chart Created Using TradingView

Broader Technical Outlook: AUDJPY is trading within the confines of a well-defined descending median-line formation off the 2014 high with the Brexit low registering just pips away from a 161.8% extension extending off the 2008 high. A breach above the median-line has encountered resistance at the 50-line parallel with price continuing to consolidate below this region.

Key support rests at 77.62-78.04 where the 61.8% extension & the 38.2% retracement of the advance converge on a basic trendline support & the median-line. This is an area of interest for long-entries with a break below the monthly open at 76.87 needed to shift the focus lower (bullish invalidation). A breach higher targets subsequent resistance objectives at 82.59, the upper parallel and the 200-day moving average at 83.17.

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AUDJPY 30min

AUD/JPY- View Weakness as an Opportunity

Notes: A near-term slope has been identified extending off last week’s highs and has continue to guide price action since the start of the week. Interim resistance stands with the weekly open at 80.00 backed by the sliding parallel (red) & the weekly high / 80.78. We’ll reserve this region is our bearish invalidation (area of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries)

Interim support rests with the 61.8% extension at 79.31 with a break below the lower parallels eyeing subsequent support targets at the 78.40 & 78.04. From a trading standpoint I’ll be looking to sell strength while within this formation, ultimately to offer more favorable long-entries lower down for a broader rally.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 47 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into key inflation prints next week as well as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision, with the releases likely to fuel increased volatility in Aussie & Yen crosses. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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Relevant Data Releases

AUD/JPY- View Weakness as an Opportunity

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 3Q Projections

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.