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AUD/USD: RBA Minutes, Fed Testimony to Offer Long Entries

AUD/USD: RBA Minutes, Fed Testimony to Offer Long Entries

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUD/USD rally to face RBA minutes, Fed Testimony
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

AUDUSD 30min

AUD/USD: RBA Minutes, Fed Testimony to Offer Long Entries

Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: Aussie continues to trade within the confines of an ascending median-line formation off the May lows with the pair gaping higher into the Sunday open. Heading into tonight’s release of the RBA minutes, our outlook remains weighted to the topside while within this formation. Look for initial support at 7405/07 with our bullish invalidation at 7360- a level defined by the 6/3 reversal-day close and the October high-day close.

Topside targets are eyed at 7489-7503 backed by a sliding parallel and the key 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 7570. Subsequent topside objectives are seen at the April low-day close at 7590 and the 78.6% retracement at 7686. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for weakness to settle near slope support to offer long-entries while above 7360. If Aussie is going to rally, we should see more rigid support come into play.

Keep in mind we also have the start of the Fed’s semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before congress which could spur added volatility in the USD crosses. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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AUD/USD: RBA Minutes, Fed Testimony to Offer Long Entries
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net long AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.10(52% of traders are long)-weak bearishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +1.28; Long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 13.1% below levels seen last week
  • Traders have turned (and have remained) net-long since June 9th – (day of the monthly high)
  • Open interest is 5.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% below its monthly average
  • Although SSI metrics put a bearish tone on the pair, the recent pullback in long-positioningleaves the short-bias at risk into the upcoming event risk

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/USD: RBA Minutes, Fed Testimony to Offer Long Entries

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.