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USD/CAD In Free-Fall; Critical Support 1.2540

USD/CAD In Free-Fall; Critical Support 1.2540

Michael Boutros,
  • USDCAD breakdown targeting key support
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels


Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: We’ve been tracking this setup on SB since the break below key confluence support at 1.2977/86 last week. The immediate focus is weighted to the downside with a critical support range at 1.2511/37 coming into view as we head towards Friday’s Canadian employment report. This region is defined by the 23.6% retracement of the 2016 range, the May 2015 advance and a long-dated trendline originating off the 2006 lows- an area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries. Near-term resistance stands at the October low at 1.2831 with our broader bearish invalidation level at 1.2977/86.

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USDCAD 30min

Notes: The pair has been trading within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation with the exchange rate briefly dipping below the 1.618% extension at 1.2694 in London trade. The immediate risk is for some recovery here but bias remains tilted to the downside near-term while below the median-line. Subsequent support objectives are eyed at 1.2631, 1.2592 & the 88.6% retracement at 1.2543.

Interim resistance stands at 1.2757 backed 1.2831 & 1.2910. Bottom line: looking lower while within this formation with a drop into key support likely to offer more favorable long-entries. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 26-30 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the close of the week with CAD labor figures & the University of Michigan confidence surveys likely to fuel increased volatility in USD & CAD crosses. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:


Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 2Q Projections !

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.