Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
EUR/USD Bears Face-Off with the ECB- Key Support 1.1065

EUR/USD Bears Face-Off with the ECB- Key Support 1.1065

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points

  • EURUSD shorts at risk ahead of ECB
  • Updated targets & invalidation

EURUSD 30min

Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: Euro is has been trading between the 100 & 200 day moving averages since the start of the week with the decline continuing to respect a broader descending median-line formation off the April & May highs. The short-side is vulnerable heading into tomorrow’s ECB interest rate decision and although we cannot rule out another drop into key support, we’re generally looking for a low around these parts for the euro. Keep in mind we still have U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap for Friday.

From a trading standpoint, heading into the rate decision I would be looking for either a dip into key support to fade the move or a breach & re-test of resistance as support to offer long-entries. A break below key support at 1.1045/65 invalidates the reversal risk with such a scenario targeting the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 1.0935.

Interim resistance stands at 1.1179/87 with a breach higher targeting objectives at 1.1219, 1.1242 and more significant resistance at 1.1286/95. While it’s too soon to tell if we can rely on this ascending pitchfork formation, the median-line does highlight near-term resistance at the aforementioned level. We’ll be continuing to track this setup and more throughout week on SB Trade Desk.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.06 (49% of traders are long)-weakbullishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +1.06 (51% of open positions were long); Long positions are 5.9% lower than yesterday and 12.1% below levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 2.3% below its monthly average
  • The recent reduction in long positioning & flip to net short suggests the short-bias is vulnerable heading into the release.

Relevant Data Releases This Week

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.