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AUD/JPY Targets Support Ahead of Australian Employment Report

AUD/JPY Targets Support Ahead of Australian Employment Report

2016-05-18 19:27:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
  • AUD/JPY in consolidation ahead of Australian Employment Report
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Check out FXCM’s Forex Trading Contest!

AUDJPY 30min

AUD/JPY Targets Support Ahead of Australian Employment Report

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDJPY has been trading within the confines of a descending median-line formation extending off the March & April highs with the pair in consolidation after stretching into a low of 78.17 earlier this month. The upper median-line parallel converges on the topside of this consolidation range at 80.54/68 – a region also defined by the April low, the monthly open and last week’s high. We’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation level with a breach above the 81.04 needed to validate a larger scale reversal targeting 81.95 & more significant resistance into 82.43/57.

A break below the monthly low-day close at 78.82 keeps the short-bias in focus targeting at 78.17 & the yearly low at 77.57. Heading into tonight’s Australian employment data, I would be looking for near-term weakness to offer a test of support – look for a reaction there. Typically these patterns are continuation patterns but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near-term reversal given the respective Aussie & Yen positioning vs the dollar. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

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AUD/JPY Targets Support Ahead of Australian Employment Report
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders remain net long AUDJPY- the ratio stands at just 2.75 (76% of traders are long)- bearishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was 2.73; long positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 6.1% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 8.6% above its monthly average.
  • SSI has typically not held at these extremes for too long and over the past year you can see pullbacks off these levels are typically accompanied by a reprieve for the broader downtrend- Bottom line: risk remains for a bounce before we break lower.

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/JPY Targets Support Ahead of Australian Employment Report

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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