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EUR/USD at Support Ahead of US Retail Sales- Resistance into 1.15

EUR/USD at Support Ahead of US Retail Sales- Resistance into 1.15

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURUSD weekly opening range highlights 1.1356-1.1443 zone
  • Immediate short bias at risk heading into Eurozone/ U.S. event risk
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

EURUSD 30min

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: EURUSD failed to rally through the May high-day close at 1.1443 with the pullback now approaching the weekly opening range lows at the 1.1356/67 support zone highlighted last week. The focus remains on this key range heading into tomorrow’s U.S. Retail Sales release with a rally to ultimately offer more short-entries higher up.

The immediate risk remains for a swing higher from here with a breach targeting 1.1465, 1.1495 & key resistance at 1.1512/16. This region is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline & the August 25th reversal-day close and we’ll reserve this region as our bearish invalidation level (favorable short entries here). A break lower keeps the short-bias in play targeting the February high-day close at 1.1320 backed by 1.1260 and the April lows at 1.1214. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders remain net short euro- the ratio stands at -1.44 (41% of traders are long)- weakbullish reading
  • Short positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 4.4% below levels seen last week.
  • Open interest is 0.8% lower than yesterday and 4.7% above its monthly average.
  • Ratio has been negative since 3/10 – near-term reduction in short exposure suggests the long bias remains at risk

Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here

Relevant Data Releases This Week

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.