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USD/CAD Outside Day Reversal Off Key Support- Long Scalps in Play

USD/CAD Outside Day Reversal Off Key Support- Long Scalps in Play

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • USDCAD to post key outside-day reversal off support
  • Long scalps favored above 1.2511/37
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels


USD/CAD Outside Day Reversal Off Key Support- Long Scalps in Play

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: USDCAD is set to post an outside-day reversal candle off a key support confluence at 1.2511/37. This region is defined by the 78.6% retracement of the May 2015 advance, the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2007 advance and former trendline resistance extending off the 2002 high. While it’s too early to tell if this level will ultimately mark a more significant low, for now we’ll take a constructive outlook on the pair while above this critical support zone.

Note that daily momentum is coming up on a former support trigger (now resistance) and a breach here would further reinforce the notion of a larger recovery. Initial areas of interest for resistance is up at the October low-day close at 1.2861 followed by a basic 23.6% retracement of the decline off the 2016 high at 1.2986.

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USDCAD 30min

USD/CAD Outside Day Reversal Off Key Support- Long Scalps in Play

Notes: The pair is now testing a short-term trendline resistance extending off the 4/7 high with a breach targeting subsequent topside objectives at the 1/26 trendline / 1.2779 & 1.2861/77.A breach above 1.2976/81 is needed to validate a more significant reversal n shifts the broader focus back towrads the April highs.

That said, I’d be looking for near-term exhaustion / failure here to offer pullbacks / long-triggers while above 1.2559 with our bullish invalidation level set to today’s lows at 1.2460. A breack below this level would likely see accelerated losses for the pair with such a scenario targeting 1.2422 & 1.2316.

Added caution is warranted heading into the end of the week with both U.S. & Canadian employment figures on tap and the releases are likely to fuel increased volatility in their respective crosses. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 31-34 pips per scalp. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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Relevant Data Releases

USD/CAD Outside Day Reversal Off Key Support- Long Scalps in Play

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.