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AUD/JPY Rebound Eyes Key Near-term Resistance- Bearish Sub-84.72

AUD/JPY Rebound Eyes Key Near-term Resistance- Bearish Sub-84.72

2016-04-13 16:52:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUDJPY Rebound off key support at risk- on the lookout for short-triggers
  • Resistance / Bearish invalidation at 84.39/72
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

AUDJPY Daily

AUD/JPY Rebound Eyes Key Near-term Resistance- Bearish Sub-84.72

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDJPY rebounded off a key support confluence last week at the 81-handle with the rebound now approaching some interesting levels of resistance. The immediate focus is on the 50-line of the operative slope extending off the March highs with our bearish invalidation level set to 84.39/72 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the late March decline, the 2015 low-day close and the 100-day moving average. We’ll be looking for short-triggers into this region with a break back below the median-line extending off the 3/14 high needed to validate the reversal lower.

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AUDJPY 30min

AUD/JPY Rebound Eyes Key Near-term Resistance- Bearish Sub-84.72

Notes: The pair has been trading within the confines of a well-defiend ascending median-line fortmation off last week’s low and we’ll be looking for a rally into key resistance at 84.39/72 or a break below the lower median-line parallel to initiate shorts. Immeidate resistance stands at the 1.618% extension at 83.97. A break below 83.21 puts the short-bias back in play targeting 82.73, 82.33 & the 61.8% retracement at 81.94. Note that these Fibonacci targets are contigent on this high holding - if we stretch into a new high, we’ll need to readjust the retracement to account for recent developments in price action.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yeilds profit targets of 30-33 pips per scalp. Added cuation is warranted heading into the Austalian employment report tonight with the release likely to fuel volatility in the Aussie crosses. Consensus estimate are calling for a print of 17K new jobs for the month of March and although headline unemployment is expected to uptick, an increase in the labor force pariticiption rate is likely to offset any bearish sentiment. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into the close of the week.

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2016 2Q Projections!

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/JPY Rebound Eyes Key Near-term Resistance- Bearish Sub-84.72

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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