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AUD/JPY Game Plan: Sell the Bounce- Bearish Invalidation 84.82

AUD/JPY Game Plan: Sell the Bounce- Bearish Invalidation 84.82

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points

  • AUDJPY reversal takes a reprieve- Rally to offer favorable short-entries
  • Broader outlook remains bearish sub-84.72/82
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDJPY reversed off the 200-day moving average last week with the decline breaking below the lower median-line parallel extending off the yearly lows. Note that daily momentum has also continued to hold sub-60 with a support-trigger break further reinforcing the short-bias. Interim resistance stands with the descending median-line backed by our bearish invalidation level at 84.72/82- a region defined by the 2015 low-day close & the 100-day moving average. A break lower targets support objectives at 82.11 backed by a more significant support confluence at the 61.8% retracement – 81.04.

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AUDJPY 30min

Notes: The “50-line” of the operative descending median-line formation caught the lows with precision yesterday and the immediate risk is for a move higher with near-term resistance eyed at 83.71 & 84.28 – both levels of which we would be on the lookout for possible short-triggers in momentum. Interim support stands at 82.79 with as break lower targeting the 50-line and the 50% retracement 82.13.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 29-31 pips per scalp. Aside from a speech tonight from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, event risk is rather limited heading into the close of the week with the Australian labor report highlighting the docket for the pair next week. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.