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AUD/USD Pullback Targets Near-term Support Ahead of FOMC, Aussie Jobs

AUD/USD Pullback Targets Near-term Support Ahead of FOMC, Aussie Jobs

2016-03-15 16:42:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUD/USD Reverses off resistance at 7590
  • Immediate focus lower- broader bullish invalidation 7381-7411.
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

AUDUSD Daily

AUD/USD Pullback Targets Near-term Support Ahead of FOMC, Aussie Jobs

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD turned from the April low-day close yesterday at 7590 with a turn in momentum shifting our near-term focus lower in the pair. Interim confluence support rests at the basic 23.6% retracement of the 2016 range and the “50” line of the ascending median-line formation at 7411. With that said, the immediate short-bias stands at risk as the exchange rate approaches this threshold- We’d be looking for long triggers on a move into this region with a break lower risking a drop into the median-line extending off the 2015 low.

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AUDUSD 30min

AUD/USD Pullback Targets Near-term Support Ahead of FOMC, Aussie Jobs

Notes: Interim support rests at 7442 backed by 7407 & our bullish invalidation level at 7381/86. A break below this level keeps the immeidate shoert-bias in play but watch out- theres some key levels lower down which could offer strong support- the October high-day close at 7360, the December high-day close at 7328 & the 2016 open at 7282.

Interim resistance now stands at 7481/89 backed by the weekly open at 7540. A breach above the weekly opening range high at 7592 puts the long-bias back on track targeting more a more significant resistance confluence at 7644/51 where the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the May high converges on the 1.618% extension of the advance off the 2016 low.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 22-26 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into key event risk this week with the FOMC interest rate decision and the Australian employment report likely to fuel volatility in the USD & AUD crosses. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into March trade.

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Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Pullback Targets Near-term Support Ahead of FOMC, Aussie Jobs

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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