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AUD/JPY Fails at Resistance Ahead of RBA Minutes- Support 84.72

AUD/JPY Fails at Resistance Ahead of RBA Minutes- Support 84.72

Talking Points

  • AUD/JPYReverses off confluence resistance
  • Immediate focus lower- broader bullish invalidation 84.72
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDJPY is responding to confluence resistance at 86.31- this level is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the December – January range, the late January/February high and the median-line extending off the January 15th outside reversal-day low. Note that the daily momentum signature is also testing resistance at 60 and could cap the advance near-term. Likely to get some more pullback here but the trade remains constructive near-term while above 84.72- a break below this level would suggest a larger correction may be underway targeting the lower median-line parallel, currently around ~82.15. This setup was highlighted in my Top Trading Opportunity of 2016.

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AUDJPY 30min

Notes: A basic trendline support extending off the late-February low converges on the 2015 low-day close at 84.72 and we will reserve this level as our near-term bullish invalidaiton level. Interim resistance stands at the 2015 low-week reversal close at 85.47 with a breach above 86.31 targeting subsequent topside objectives at the 200-day moving average at 87.31 backed by the 2016 open at 87.54.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 35-39 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the release of the RBA minutes tonight with the Australian employment report & the FOMC policy decision likely to fuel volatility in risk-sensitive pairs. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into March trade.

Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.