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Talking Points


AUDUSD Opening Range Break Pending Ahead of Aussie Employment Data

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: AUDUSD rebounded sharply off confluence support at 6985 earlier this month with the rally now extending into resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2001-2011 advance at 7177. The weekly opening range has taken shape just below this level and we’ll be looking for a break of this range to validate our directional bias with a general long-bias favored while above 7034 (bullish invalidation).

A breach of the highs eyes more critical resistance targets into 7271/81 where the 1.618% extension of the advance converges on the 2016 open & a pair of median-line extending off the 2015 lows. Note that over the next few days the 200-day moving average will also be sliding into this range.

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AUDUSD 30min

AUDUSD Opening Range Break Pending Ahead of Aussie Employment Data

Notes: A clean weekly opening range is set between the 38.2% retracement at 7083 & the 7171/77 resistance confluence. We’ll be looking to buy pullbacks / long triggers while within this channel off the January lows with a breach higher targeting trendline resistance extending off the Decemeber high (~7210/15) backed by the monthly high at 7242 & key resistance at 7265/71.

Interim support rests at 7127 & 7083 with our near-term bullish invalidation level set at 7034/37. A break sub-6985 would be needed to put the broader short-bias back in play. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 25-28pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into Australian employement data later this evening & US CPI numbers on Friday with the releases likely to fuel volatility in AUD & USD crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases

AUDUSD Opening Range Break Pending Ahead of Aussie Employment Data

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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