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NZD/USD Shorts Favored Sub-6759 - Range Break to Clear the Way

NZD/USD Shorts Favored Sub-6759 - Range Break to Clear the Way

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZD/USD Weekly opening range break to validate bias (shorts favored)
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Event Risk on Tap This Week


NZD/USD Shorts Favored Sub-6759 - Range Break to Clear the Way

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: NZDUSD has been trading in within the confines of a broader descending median-line formation off the October high with an embedded formation off the December highs mirroring the same slope. The recent rally off the January lows was capped by confluence resistance at the upper median-line parallel & the 200-day moving average & the long-side is now vulnerable sub 6755/59. Note the pending support trigger in the daily momentum signature.

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NZDUSD 30min

NZD/USD Shorts Favored Sub-6759 - Range Break to Clear the Way

Notes: Divergence into a trigger break shifted the focs to the topside with today’s rally now encompassing the entire weekly opening range. The immediate focus is on a resolution this range to offer guidance with a downside break favored. Interm confluence resistance stands at 6675/77 backed by soft resistance at 6716 & our bearish invalidation level at 6755/59.

Interim support rests at the weekly open / 50% retracement at 6614, with subsqeunt support objectives eyed at 6590 & 6547/58. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 25-27 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the semi-annual Hamphrey Hawkins testimony before congress with Fed Chair Janet Yellen tomorrow & U.S. Advanced Retail Sales print on Friday.

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Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into February trade.

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD Shorts Favored Sub-6759 - Range Break to Clear the Way

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.