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Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Webinar: Dollar Prospects Hinge on Yellen- EUR, GBP Setups Favored

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Notes:The Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker USDOLLAR) rebounded off confluence support last week on the back of the NFP release. The focus range to start the week is 12049- 12123/31 and we’ll be looking for the weekly opening range to offer further guidance on our near-term directional bias. Base case scenario- a breach of this range is capped off by 12204 with our broader bearish invalidation level set at the high-day close at 12280. A break of the lows targets support objectives at 12023 & the 50% retracement at 11970.


Notes: The breakout potential we noted last week materialized with the rally taking out all of our topside objectives before stalling just ahead of a key resistance confluence at 1.1253/63. Interim support rests at 1.1120 backed by our bullish invalidation level at 1.1045/53. Note that this level is now defined by the 61.8% extension of the advance off the December low, the 200-day moving average & basic medina-line support. Bottom line- the pair remains constructive while above 1.1045 with a breach of key resistance targeting the August High-Day outside reversal close at 1.1385 (also the 88.6% retracement of the October decline).

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Notes: Sterling reversed off the 1.4654/88 key resistance zone last week with the decline now checking a support confluence at 1.4373 where the 50% retracement of the advance converges on a pair of slope lines extending off the May high. If the pound is heading higher- Here is where you would want to see support. A break below this threshold shifts the focus towards the 2016 low-day close at 1.4219.

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Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into February trade.

Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.