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AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload

AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDJPY rebound in focus- Rally to ultimately offer favorable shorts
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Event Risk on Tap This Week


AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload


AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: This AUDJPY setup was highlighted in my Top Trading Opportunities of 2016 and the sell-off in the pair has already attained 2 of our 3 support targets before mounting an outside reversal candle off the 50% retracement at 80.16 last week. Bullish divergence into a resistance trigger-break on the daily chart shifts the near-term focus to the topside with the rally likely to offer more favorable short entries higher up. Initial daily confluence resistance is eyed at 84.72/95 where the 2015 low-day close & the 50% retracement converge on the upper median-line parallel. Subsequent resistance objectives at 85.41/47 & 86.31.The trade remains constructive while above 82.15.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of Successful Traders” series.

AUDJPY 30min

AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload

Notes: The pair is trading within the confines of a well-defined ascending median-line formation with the advance now testing the 61.8% extension of the rally off the monthly low at 84.12. We may get some pullback here but the immediate focus remains weighted to the topside while above the weekly open at 83.07 with the broader bullish invalidation level eyed at 82.15.

A breach higher eyes resistance objectives at the 2015 low-day close 84.72 and the low-week reversal close at 85.47. Note that this level converges on basic trendline resistance extending off the December high heading into U.S. trade tomorrow. Subsequent resistance targets (and areas of favorable short entries) are eyed at the 100% extension at 85.76 & the 100day moving average at 86.14.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 43-47pips per scalp. Look for data out of Japan and broader market sentiment to drive this pair with Japanese employment data & the BoJ on tap alongside U.S. 4Q GDP into the close of the week.

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Relevant Data Releases

AUDJPY Following 2016 Trade Plan- Time to Reload

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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