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EUR/CAD Rebound Eyes 1.4340 Hurdle

EUR/CAD Rebound Eyes 1.4340 Hurdle

2015-11-19 22:18:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points


EUR/CAD Rebound Eyes 1.4340 Hurdle

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Broader Technical Outlook

  • EURCAD rebounds off June high / posts outside day- bullish
  • Interim resistance at the median line (~1.4333) backed by 1.4381
  • Subsequent resistance objectives at 1.4429 & 1.4561/90
  • Interim support 1.4160- bullish invalidation
  • Subsequent support objectives at200DMA (1.4113), 1.4051 & 1.3991
  • Daily RSI holding 40-support / pending resistance trigger- breach would be bullish
  • Key Event Risk Ahead: Canada Retail Sales & CPI and Eurozone Consumer Confidence tomorrow


EUR/CAD Rebound Eyes 1.4340 Hurdle

Notes: EURCAD has rebounded off June high with today’s rally breaking above TL resistance to post an outside-day candle. The immediate focus is higher while within the confines of the proposed pitchfork off last week’s low (blue) with resistance objectives eyed at 1.4293 & 1.4333/42. A breach above key resistance at 1.4382/86 is needed to validate a larger-scale reversal in the pair targeting the monthly open & the July high at 1.4493.

The trade remains constructive while above former trendline resistance / 1.4232 with a break sub 1.4160 needed to shift the focus back to the short-side targeting the 200-day moving average at 1.4114, the May high-day close at 1.4050 & the key 61.8% retracement at 1.3991. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 30-33 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the Canadian retail sales & CPI figures tomorrow with the release likely to fuel volatility in CAD crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases Next Week

EUR/CAD Rebound Eyes 1.4340 Hurdle

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.