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NZD/USD Drops Into September High- Bearish Sub 6588

NZD/USD Drops Into September High- Bearish Sub 6588

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Broader Technical Outlook

  • NZDUSD testing interim support at September high 6455
  • Break lower targets 6391 / parallel support
  • Subsequent support targets at 6271 & 6235
  • Interim resistance 6519backed by 6587bearish invalidation
  • Daily RSI resistance trigger pending- Breach would be bullish near-term
  • Key Event Risk Ahead: US Housing Starts & FOMC Minutes and New Zealand PPI tomorrow

NZDUSD 30min

Notes: Kiwi has been trading within the confines of these parallels since the start of the month with the decline now testing interim support at the September highs at 6455. Interim resistance stands at 6488 with the immediate focus remains weighted to the short-side while below 6514/19. A break lower targets 6424 & the 76.4% retracement at 6391. Note that the second measured parallel converges on this level into the close of the week.

A breach above median-line resistance shifts the focus back to the topside targeting 6566 and last week’s high at 6587- (broader bearish invalidation). A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 20-22 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the release of US Retail Sales & the FOMC minutes tomorrow with the events likely to fuel volatility in USD crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases Next Week

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.