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EUR/JPY on the Cusp of Important Move

EUR/JPY on the Cusp of Important Move

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points


EUR/JPY on the Cusp of Important Move

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Broader Technical Outlook

  • EURJPY at key support confluence 131.70/80- shorts at risk above this level
  • Break below 131.24 risks a decline into 129.61 & median-line support ~128.70
  • Resistance at 132.81(monthly open) backed by 133.14 (monthly opening-range high)
  • Daily RSI holding sub-40 - bearish
  • Multi-month momentum resistance-trigger pending- breach would be bullish
  • Key Event Risk Ahead: Japanese Machine Orders tonight & Eurozone Industrial Production tomorrow and Eurozone 3Q GDP on Friday

EURJPY 30min

EUR/JPY on the Cusp of Important Move

Notes: It’s make-or-break time for EURJPY- the monthly opening range has been set just above a critical support confluence at 131.70/80 (check daily chart). We’ll be looking for a break of this consolidation to offer further guidance with the immediate focus targeting long triggers while within this ascending slope structure off the lows.

Interim resistance targets are eyed at 132.40 with a breach above 132.65/73 needed to validate a more meaningful turn higher for the pair with such a scenario targeting 133.14 & 133.53. A break of the lows invalidates the reversal outlook with a move sub-131.24 needed to put the short-bias back into focus targeting 130.00/13 and 129.62.

A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 27-29 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into Eurozone GDP data on Friday with the release likely to fuel volatility in euro crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases Next Week

EUR/JPY on the Cusp of Important Move

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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