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AUDNZD: Rinse & Repeat- Reversal Scalp Back in Play Ahead of GDP

AUDNZD: Rinse & Repeat- Reversal Scalp Back in Play Ahead of GDP

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD reverses off 2015 slope resistance for a 5th consecutive time- bearish
  • Reversal eyes near-term support at 1.1067 (August Open)
  • Break targets August lows / 1.0911/35- Key support
  • Resistance & broader bearish invalidation at highlighted region into 1.1213
  • Subsequent resistance at 1.1278 & 1.1349 (high-day close)
  • Pending resistance-trigger in play- look for a break sub 40 to mark a larger decline
  • Event Risk Ahead: Australian GDP tonight & Retail Sales tomorrow

AUDNZD 30min

Notes: The reversal off trendline resistance extending off the 2015 high has come into initial support at the lower median-line parallel dating back to the 8/26 low with near-term resistance eyed at 1.1103/07. A break of the RSI resistance trigger shifts the immediate bias to the topside targeting 1.1140.l We’ll reserve this level as our bearish invalidation level with a break through risking a rally back towards the monthly open at 1.1212.

Bottom line: although the immediate risk is for a move higher, we’ll be looking to sell rallies while sub 1.1140 with a break of support targeting subsequent objectives at 1.1067, 1.1013 & 1.0955. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 31-33 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into Australian event risk later this week with GDP numbers retail sales data likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.