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AUDUSD Rebound Faces Initial Hurdle- Longs Scalps Favored Above 7365

AUDUSD Rebound Faces Initial Hurdle- Longs Scalps Favored Above 7365

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD breaks previous week’s high for the first time since June- constructive
  • Rally now testing initial resistance at multi-month median-line parallel (~7425)- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 7468, 7540 & 7590-7613
  • Support at weekly ORL 7260 backed by 7177 & key support into 7130/35
  • Daily RSI resistance trigger breach- bullish
  • Key Event Risk Ahead: Australian Employment Tomorrow and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

AUDUSD 30min

Notes: Aussie pushed through last week’s highs on the back of the RBA interest rate decision with the rally now testing a near-term resistance confluence into the 7425 zone. Intraday momentum has broken to its highest levels since early June with an ascending median-line formation off last week’s lows keeping long-scalps in focus while above the ML / last week’s highs at 7366. A breach above highlighted resistance would suggest a larger-scale reversal may be underway with such a scenario targeting subsequent objectives at 7468/74 & 7532/40.

Bottom line: we’ll be looking to buy pullbacks / resistance triggers while above the ML with a break below the weekly opening range low needed to shift the focus back to the short-side targeting key support at 7177 & 7130/35. A quarter of the daily Average True Range yields profit targets of 22-25pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into Key Australian & U.S. event risk this week with employment data likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie & Dollar crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.