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GBPJPY Defends Monthly Open- Weekly Range Break to Validate Long Bias

GBPJPY Defends Monthly Open- Weekly Range Break to Validate Long Bias

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking PointsMik


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPJPY posts outside daily reversal candle off confluence support / monthly open- constructive
  • Weekly opening range in focus- break to validate near-term bias
  • Support at 192.24/36 backed by the ML & the December high at 189.70
  • Resistance at the June TL backed by the 2015 HDC at 194.43 & the uncovered gap 194.94
  • Subsequent resistance targets at 195.86/90, 197.22 & 198.52
  • Pending RSI resistance trigger in play- Breach would be bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Japanese Trade Balance tonight and UK Retail Sales tomorrow

GBPJPY 30min

Notes: The weekly opening range has taken shape just above the July open at 192.36 with and outside day reversal candle on Wednesday extending the length of the entire range. The focus is on a break of 192.36-193.93 range with the trade remaining constructive while above the median-line extending off the February low (blue). A breach of the highs targets the high-day close at 194.43 backed by the uncovered gap at 194.94 & the yearly high at 195.86.

A break below the ML / 100% extension at 191.90 invalidates the long-side with such a scenario targeting support objectives into 190.60/77 & 189.67/69 where the 50% retracement converges on the December high. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 48-51pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into UK event risk tomorrow with the release of the June retail sales figures likely to fuel added volatility in the sterling crosses.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.