Talking Points
- USDCAD breaks below June opening range- pullback testing initial support
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
- Event Riskon TapThis Week
USDCAD Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- USDCAD holds resistance at the 2015 high-day close at 1.2559
- Break of June ORL at 1.2384 & April/May ML shifts bias lower
- Resistance & bearish invalidation into 1.24 (bearish invalidation)
- Support-break targets objectives at 1.2165, the February ML & 1.20
- RSI reversal sub-60 , break below 50 - bearish
- Key Event Risk Ahead: US Advanced Retail Sales on tomorrow
USDCAD 30min
Notes: A clean pitchfork formation off the highs is in focus with today’s low rebounding off the lower median-line parallel at 1.22. Risk for a rebound higher mounts with a break above 1.2286 with our bearish invalidation level set at the highlighted region into 1.2381 where a sliding parallel off the weekly high converges on the 50% retracement & last week’s swing low. Look for interim support at the figure with key near-term support seen at the confluence of the double-top measured move & the 61.8% retracement at 1.2165/71.
Bottom line: we’ll be looking to sell rallies / short-triggers while within this formation with only a breach above the upper MLP / 1.24 invalidating our near-term directional bias. Caution is warranted heading into the U.S. Advanced Retail Sales print tomorrow with the release likely to fuel added volatility in USD crosses. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 29-31 pips per scalp.
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Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- EURNZD Threatens Key Resistance Ahead of RBNZ- Longs at Risk Sub 1.59
- Scalp Webinar: NFP Fails to Spur USD Breakout- June Range Remains Key
- USDOLLAR Flirts with Breakdown- Short Scalps Favored Sub 11960 Ahead of NFPs
- EURUSD Scalp Levels Heading Into ECB, NFP- Longs Favored Above 1.1065
- AUDUSD Testing Key Support- Short Scalps Vulnerable Above 7680
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex,contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)
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