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USDCAD Scalps Face 1.25 Key Resistance Ahead of BoC, GDP

USDCAD Scalps Face 1.25 Key Resistance Ahead of BoC, GDP

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDCAD rally targets key resistance confluence region at 1.2484 -1.2503
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.2559 (2015 HDC) / the MLP
  • Interim support 1.2376 backed by the April ML / 1.2268- bullish invalidation
  • Daily momentum targeting 60-threshold – Breach would keep topside bias in play
  • Event Risk Ahead: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision tomorrow and U.S. & Canada 1Q GDP on Friday

USD/CAD 30min

Notes:The USDCAD is eyeing down key near-term resistance into the 1.25-handle ahead of the BoC tomorrow with the long-side at risk for a pullback below this threshold (bearish invalidation). Interim support rests at 1.2375 backed by the lower MLP (dashed) & the median-line off the April low (bullish invalidation ~1.2321).

Bottom line: we’ll be looking for short-triggers heading up into resistance for a possible pullback into median-line support. A breach above the 1.25-figure keeps the long-bias in play targeting topside objectives at the 2015 high-day close at 1.2559 backed by 1.26374 and 1.2710. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 25-28 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into Friday’s event risk with the release of both the U.S. & Canadian GDP figures likely to fuel added volatility on the loonie & dollar crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.