USDCAD Scalps Face 1.25 Key Resistance Ahead of BoC, GDP

Talking Points

• USDCAD rally approaching key near-term resistance
• 1.25 in Focus heading into BoC / GDP
• Event Risk on Tap This Week

USD/CAD Daily

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• USDCAD rally targets key resistance confluence region at 1.2484 -1.2503
• Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.2559 (2015 HDC) / the MLP
• Interim support 1.2376 backed by the April ML / 1.2268- bullish invalidation
• Daily momentum targeting 60-threshold – Breach would keep topside bias in play
• Event Risk Ahead: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision tomorrow and U.S. & Canada 1Q GDP on Friday

USD/CAD 30min

Notes:The USDCAD is eyeing down key near-term resistance into the 1.25-handle ahead of the BoC tomorrow with the long-side at risk for a pullback below this threshold (bearish invalidation). Interim support rests at 1.2375 backed by the lower MLP (dashed) & the median-line off the April low (bullish invalidation ~1.2321).

Bottom line: we’ll be looking for short-triggers heading up into resistance for a possible pullback into median-line support. A breach above the 1.25-figure keeps the long-bias in play targeting topside objectives at the 2015 high-day close at 1.2559 backed by 1.26374 and 1.2710. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 25-28 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into Friday’s event risk with the release of both the U.S. & Canadian GDP figures likely to fuel added volatility on the loonie & dollar crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

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Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

• GBPUSD Longs Favored Above 1.5540- Scalps Target May Highs
• EURCAD Pullback Stalls at Support- Sub 1.3538 to Negate Bullish Bias
• Scalp Webinar: USD At Risk For Bearish Invalidation- 11,737 In Focus
• NZDJPY Rebound Testing Resistance- Scalps Target 89.50 Inflection Zone

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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