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Scalp Webinar: USD Rebound at Risk- AUD Bulls to Face RBA

Scalp Webinar: USD Rebound at Risk- AUD Bulls to Face RBA

Michael Boutros,
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Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Notes: Last week we highlighted our short-bias on the Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index with the breakdown turning just ahead of our final target at 11,737 (low 11739). The rebound off this mark is now in focus with rally extending into the 11,880 resistance zone today in US trade. A close above this region is needed to keep the near-term topside bias in play targeting the 50% retracement at 11,951 / ML resistance. That said, we are just putting in the May opening range with key event risk on tap this week with our general outlook favoring fading USD while within this formation (sub ML resistance). Interim support rests at 11,373 with a break below targeting 11,664 & operative ML support. Note the resistance trigger in daily momentum.

AUD/JPY 30min

Notes:The AUDJPY setup featured last week has come into interim support at 93.74/80 with the weekly opening range taking shape just above. The RBA interest rate decision is on tap night with market participant factoring a 75% chance of a 25basis point cut from the central bank. That said, the risk heading into the release is if they do not cut with the AUDUSD also eyeing support at 7800 heading into the release. A break back above 945.8/65 targets the ML off the lows with a break below support suggesting a larger correction lower is underway. Caution is warranted heading into the RBA with the April employment report out the following day also likely to fuel added volatility in the AUD crosses. A quarter of the daily ATR still yields profit targets of 26-28 pips per scalp. Bottom line: looking for a clear break of the weekly opening range with a move sub-93.75 needed to keep the short-bias play.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.