Scalp Webinar: USD Rebound at Risk- AUD Bulls to Face RBA
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- Updated targets & invalidation levels
- Event Risk on TapThisWeek
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Notes:Last week we highlighted our short-bias on the Dow Jones FXCM U.S. Dollar Index with the breakdown turning just ahead of our final target at 11,737 (low 11739). The rebound off this mark is now in focus with rally extending into the 11,880 resistance zone today in US trade. A close above this region is needed to keep the near-term topside bias in play targeting the 50% retracement at 11,951 / ML resistance. That said, we are just putting in the May opening range with key event risk on tap this week with our general outlook favoring fading USD while within this formation (sub ML resistance). Interim support rests at 11,373 with a break below targeting 11,664 & operative ML support. Note the resistance trigger in daily momentum.
Notes:The AUDJPY setup featured last week has come into interim support at 93.74/80 with the weekly opening range taking shape just above. The RBA interest rate decision is on tap night with market participant factoring a 75% chance of a 25basis point cut from the central bank. That said, the risk heading into the release is if they do not cut with the AUDUSD also eyeing support at 7800 heading into the release. A break back above 945.8/65 targets the ML off the lows with a break below support suggesting a larger correction lower is underway. Caution is warranted heading into the RBA with the April employment report out the following day also likely to fuel added volatility in the AUD crosses. A quarter of the daily ATR still yields profit targets of 26-28 pips per scalp. Bottom line: looking for a clear break of the weekly opening range with a move sub-93.75 needed to keep the short-bias play.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- USDCAD Breakdown Stalls at Key Support- May Opening Range in Focus
- AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI
- Scalp Webinar: USD Risks Fresh Lows Ahead of Slowing GDP, FOMC
- GBPJPY Breakout Eyes 181- Long Scalps Favored Above 179
- Scalp Webinar: USD Correction In Focus- Kiwi at Risk Sub 7700
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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