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AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

What's on this page

Talking Points


Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY breakout in focus after breaching key slope resistance confluence
  • Near-term resistance confluence in view at 95.50 ( 100% Extension & 200DMA)
  • Subsequent resistance objectives at 96.10 & slope resistance ~96.60
  • Broader double bottom objective targets 98.45
  • Interim support at 9450 backed by highlighted region into February ML (bullish invalidation)
  • Daily RSI testing 60-breach for the first time since October 30th – constructive
  • Momentum support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision on April 30th and China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing on May 1st.

AUD/JPY 30min

Notes:AUDJPY broke above the weekly ORH / key near-term resistance at the highlighted zone around the 94-handle with the rally now targeting targets at 95.49/50 where the 100% extension off the yearly low converges on the 2000-day moving average. We’ll be looking for a reaction here with a break higher targeting key resistance into the upper MLP / 50% retracement at 96.10. Interim support rests at 94.50 backed by the ML & 93.80. Keep in mind that this breach does constitute a double bottom on the February & April lows with a measured move targeting a broader rally into the 98-handle.

Bottom line: Looking for long triggers while above the operative median line off the monthly lows targeting the upper MLP. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 24-27 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into the BoJ & China PMI data with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie & Yen crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.