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AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDJPY breakout scalps in focus- near-term resistance 95.49
  • Possible double bottom in play targets objectives into 98
  • Event Risk on TapThis Week


AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY breakout in focus after breaching key slope resistance confluence
  • Near-term resistance confluence in view at 95.50 ( 100% Extension & 200DMA)
  • Subsequent resistance objectives at 96.10 & slope resistance ~96.60
  • Broader double bottom objective targets 98.45
  • Interim support at 9450 backed by highlighted region into February ML (bullish invalidation)
  • Daily RSI testing 60-breach for the first time since October 30th – constructive
  • Momentum support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision on April 30th and China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing on May 1st.

AUD/JPY 30min

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

Notes:AUDJPY broke above the weekly ORH / key near-term resistance at the highlighted zone around the 94-handle with the rally now targeting targets at 95.49/50 where the 100% extension off the yearly low converges on the 2000-day moving average. We’ll be looking for a reaction here with a break higher targeting key resistance into the upper MLP / 50% retracement at 96.10. Interim support rests at 94.50 backed by the ML & 93.80. Keep in mind that this breach does constitute a double bottom on the February & April lows with a measured move targeting a broader rally into the 98-handle.

Bottom line: Looking for long triggers while above the operative median line off the monthly lows targeting the upper MLP. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 24-27 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into the BoJ & China PMI data with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie & Yen crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

AUDJPY Breakout Scalps Target 200 DMA Ahead of BoJ, China PMI

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.