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NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending

NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZDUSD testing key resistance after breach of April opening range high
  • Near-term focus against 7700
  • Event Risk on TapThisWeek

NZD/USD Daily

NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDUSD advance approaches key near-term resistance 7983-7700 (bearish invalidation)
  • Breach targets TL resistance extending off the October Highs backed by 7809
  • Interim support at former monthly opening range high- 7629 & 7440/54 (bullish invalidation)
  • Daily momentum resistance trigger break- bullish (note that 60-resistance has held since June 2014)
  • Pending support trigger in play- break would be bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: US CPI & University of Michigan Sentiment Surveys on Friday and New Zealand CPI early next week

NZD/USD 30min

NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending

Notes:The kiwi is approaching a key resistance confluence just ahead of the 77-handle with the long scalp-bias (validated by the break of the weekly opening range) now at risk while below this region. Intraday divergence into the highs with a pending support trigger has us looking lower from here for now. Interim support 7660 backed by 7610/20 & 7567/69. Look for the break sub-7660 to open up the short-bias targeting channel support off the lows.

Bottom line: looking for short-triggers sub-7700. A breach above invalidates our near-term directional bias with such a scenario targeting resistance objectives at 7726/33 & the 2015 open 7791. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 25-27pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into event risk tomorrow with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap and New Zealand CPI on the Sunday open.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

NZDUSD Breakout Stalls at 7700 Resistance- Short Scalps Pending

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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