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Talking Points


AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD reverses off median-line / Fibonacci confluence at 7938
  • Pullback now testing initial support at 7800- bullish invalidation level
  • Break below targets weekly low & 7700
  • Breach of this formation targets 8013/22 backed by the November 2014 ML (dark green)
  • Pending momentum support trigger- break would reinforce near-term bias
  • Event Risk Ahead: US Q4 GDP (final), Personal Consumption & University of Michigan Sentiment Surveys tomorrow morning

AUD/USD 30min

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Notes: Aussie is coming off big technical resistance with the break sub-7850 shifting focus lower in the pair. The focus heading into Friday the 7800-7850 range a general short-bias in play while within the proposed medina-line formation off the highs (dashed blue) Note that the pair is not testing the median-line off the monthly lows & could produce a near-term rebound.

Bottom line: looking to sell rallies / short-triggers in momentum while below 7850 with only a breach above weekly TL resistance invalidating the short-side bias. Such a scenario eyes subsequent resistance targets into 7900/11 & the 7938 key Fibonacci level. That’s said, note interim support at 7800 with a break below the proposed median line opening eyeing scalp targets at 7750/62 & the 77-handle. Ultimately a pull into this region would have us looking for long triggers. Caution is warranted heading into tomorrow’s US data print with the final release of the Q4 GDP data likely to fuel added volatile in USD crosses. A quarter of the Daily ATR yield profit targets of 24-27 pips per scalp.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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