Talking Points
- USDJPY weekly opening range in focus
- Constructive bias at risk just below near-term resistance- 119.64
- Key Event Risk on Tap
USD/JPY Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- USDJPY holding within tight weekly range- 118.60- 119.64 in focus
- Breach targets 120.00/17, 121.44 & 121.84
- Support break targets 118.15 / pitchfork support (bullish invalidation)
- Momentum holding above 50- constructive
- Note pending RSI support trigger- Break would validate move sub-118
- Event Risk Ahead: Japan CPI, Industrial Production & Retail Trade tonight and US 4Q GDP & University of Michigan Confidence tomorrow
USD/JPY 30min
Notes: A proposed embedded formation may be in play here – further highlighting near-term resistance at 119.38/46. This level is defined by the 23.6% retracement of the late-January advance and the 100% extension of the advance off last week’s low. A breach higher eyes key resistance at 119.64 where a trendline off the monthly highs converges on a longer-dated 76.4% retracement of the late December decline. We are looking for a reaction off this level with a breach keeping the topside bias in play.
Bottom line: we’ll be focused on the 118.60- 119.64weekly range heading into tomorrow’s event risk with our bullish invalidation level pined to the lower median-line parallel of the embedded pitchfork. A quarter of the daily ATR yields profit targets of 22-25 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into US 4Q GDP tomorrow with the print likely to fuel added volatility in USD based pairs.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- Scalping AUD/USD Opening Range Break- 7850 Support
- EURUSD Technicals Back in Focus- February Opening Range Setup
- Webinar: Scalp Setups Target Sterling Crosses
- GBPNZD Responds to Key Support- Scalps Target Resistance at 2.0550
- GBPJPY Scalps Target Key Resistance Range- Longs at Risk Sub 184
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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