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Scalping NZD/JPY Breakdown- Shorts Favored Sub 90.00

Scalping NZD/JPY Breakdown- Shorts Favored Sub 90.00

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZDJPY breaks key near-term support at 89.90 – 90.02
  • Scalp bias weighted to the downside below this mark
  • Event Risk on Tap This Week


Scalping NZD/JPY Breakdown- Shorts Favored Sub 90.00

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDJPY monthly opening range break on 1/13 put short-side bias in play
  • Rebound & defense of the opening range low as resistance- bearish
  • Interim support 88.52/65, April 2014 median-line (aprox~ 88.35) & 87.40/54
  • Resistance at 89.91 – 90.02 – scalp bias bearish invalidation
  • Key resistance & broader bearish invalidation up at 91.65 (monthly ORL)
  • Daily RSI coming into 40 support- Break below would be bearish
  • Limited event risk until next week

NZD/JPY 30min

Scalping NZD/JPY Breakdown- Shorts Favored Sub 90.00

Notes:The pair has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation off the late-December high with today’s decline breaking through key near-term support at 89.91- 90.02. This region is defined by the weekly opening range, the median-line bisector and the confluence of the 100% extension off the 2014 high & the 38.2% retracement of the October advance. We will reserve this zone as our bearish invalidation level with our immediate focus on a push lower into the lower median-line parallel at 88.30/65.

Bottom line: looking to sell rallies / short triggers while below the 90-handle with a break sub-88.30 targeting more significant support at the 84.40/55 objective. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) suggests profit targets of 26-29pips per scalp. Event risk for the pair is limited heading into the end of the week but we’ll be on the lookout for the RBNZ interest rate decision on

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Scalping NZD/JPY Breakdown- Shorts Favored Sub 90.00

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.