Talking Points
- NZDJPY breaks key near-term support at 89.90 – 90.02
- Scalp bias weighted to the downside below this mark
- Event Risk on Tap This Week
NZD/JPY Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- NZDJPY monthly opening range break on 1/13 put short-side bias in play
- Rebound & defense of the opening range low as resistance- bearish
- Interim support 88.52/65, April 2014 median-line (aprox~ 88.35) & 87.40/54
- Resistance at 89.91 – 90.02 – scalp bias bearish invalidation
- Key resistance & broader bearish invalidation up at 91.65 (monthly ORL)
- Daily RSI coming into 40 support- Break below would be bearish
- Limited event risk until next week
NZD/JPY 30min
Notes:The pair has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined descending pitchfork formation off the late-December high with today’s decline breaking through key near-term support at 89.91- 90.02. This region is defined by the weekly opening range, the median-line bisector and the confluence of the 100% extension off the 2014 high & the 38.2% retracement of the October advance. We will reserve this zone as our bearish invalidation level with our immediate focus on a push lower into the lower median-line parallel at 88.30/65.
Bottom line: looking to sell rallies / short triggers while below the 90-handle with a break sub-88.30 targeting more significant support at the 84.40/55 objective. A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) suggests profit targets of 26-29pips per scalp. Event risk for the pair is limited heading into the end of the week but we’ll be on the lookout for the RBNZ interest rate decision on
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- AUDCAD Long Scalp Bias at Risk Ahead of 9928 Resistance, BoC Meeting
- AUDUSD Scalps Target 8300 Resistance
- GBPUSD Reversal Pauses at Resistance- Longs Favored Above 1.5170
- USDJPY Threatens Opening Range- Sub 118 Targets In View
- Key Levels for USD Crosses, Gold Ahead of NFPs
- GBPCAD Scalps Target Major Support- Shorts at Risk Above 1.7850
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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