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AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance

AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

AUD/USD Weekly

AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance


AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD rebound coming into initial region of resistance
  • Long scalp bias at risk sub-8300 (bearish invalidation)
  • Interim support at 8200- (scalp bias invalidation)
  • Daily RSI resistance trigger breach- constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: US CPI, Industrial Production & University of Michigan on Friday

AUD/USD 30min

AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance

Notes:The aussie has been trading within the confines of a well-defined ascending pitchfork formation off the December lows with today’s rally taking the pair into a key resistance zone just below the 8300-handle. The region is defined by the 100% extension off the monthly low, the upper median-line parallel (blue) and the September trendline resistance and will serve as our near-term bearish invalidation level.

That said, our long-scalp bias is now at risk sub 8300 with a break below 8194 shifting the focus back to the short side of the Aussie. A breach above the 83-handle keeps the long-bias in play with such a scenario targeting scalps into the confluence of the 50% retracement & 1.618% extension at 8413//23. Caution is warranted heading tomorrow’s data series with key US inflation, industrial production and the University of Michigan sentiment surveys likely to fuel added volatility in USD based pairs.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

AUDUSD Rally at Risk- Scalps Target 8300 Resistance

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.