Talking Points
- Australian Dollar coming into key near-term resistance
- Long scalp bias at risk sub-8300
- Event Risk on Tap This Week
AUD/USD Weekly
AUD/USD Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDUSD rebound coming into initial region of resistance
- Long scalp bias at risk sub-8300 (bearish invalidation)
- Interim support at 8200- (scalp bias invalidation)
- Daily RSI resistance trigger breach- constructive
- Event Risk Ahead: US CPI, Industrial Production & University of Michigan on Friday
AUD/USD 30min
Notes:The aussie has been trading within the confines of a well-defined ascending pitchfork formation off the December lows with today’s rally taking the pair into a key resistance zone just below the 8300-handle. The region is defined by the 100% extension off the monthly low, the upper median-line parallel (blue) and the September trendline resistance and will serve as our near-term bearish invalidation level.
That said, our long-scalp bias is now at risk sub 8300 with a break below 8194 shifting the focus back to the short side of the Aussie. A breach above the 83-handle keeps the long-bias in play with such a scenario targeting scalps into the confluence of the 50% retracement & 1.618% extension at 8413//23. Caution is warranted heading tomorrow’s data series with key US inflation, industrial production and the University of Michigan sentiment surveys likely to fuel added volatility in USD based pairs.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
- GBPUSD Reversal Pauses at Resistance- Longs Favored Above 1.5170
- USDJPY Threatens Opening Range- Sub 118 Targets In View
- Key Levels for USD Crosses, Gold Ahead of NFPs
- GBPCAD Scalps Target Major Support- Shorts at Risk Above 1.7850
- GBPNZD Opening Range in Focus Ahead of BoE- 1.9722 Key Support
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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