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Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURUSD Weekly opening range break keeps near-term focus lower
  • Shorts at risk heading into interim support / key event risk
  • Eventrisk on tap this week

EUR/USD Daily

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD continues to respect TL resistance off the October high
  • Initial support at 2012 low week close 1.2315 (now testing)
  • Break eyes susbsequent support objectives at 1.2202, 1.2145 & 1.2095
  • Key resistance now at monthly/weekly opening range high- 1.2500
  • Daily RSI holding sub 50- bearish
  • Momentum resistance trigger pending- breach to mark correction
  • Event Risk Ahead: ECB Rate Decision tomorrow morning & US NFPs on Friday

EUR/USD 30min

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Notes: We’ve been tracking the short-side of the EURUSD since Monday’s rally into key resistance at the 1.25-handle. The break of the initial weekly opening range yesterday confirmed our scalp bias with the pair breaking below the November lows in early European trade. The focus remains weighted to the short-side sub-1.24 with key support targets coming into view just below today’s lows.

Significant event risk is on tap for the pair heading into the close of the week with ECB interest rate decision tomorrow and the US non-farm employment report on Friday likely to fuel added volatility in EUR & USD crosses. Bottom line: We’ll favor selling rallies sub-1.24 with key support eyed at 1.2265/72 (shorts into this region are at risk- we’ll be looking for a near-term low). A break below this level would be needed to maintain our near-term outlook with such a scenario eyeing targets at the 1.22-figure and 1.2142. Look for ECB/NFP reaction to offer further guidance on our directional bias as we open up December trade.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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