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NZDUSD Scalps Target 2013 Low- Breakdown Risk Below 7800

NZDUSD Scalps Target 2013 Low- Breakdown Risk Below 7800

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZDUSD Scalps Target 2013 Low- Breakdown Risk Below 7800

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDUSD pressing 2013/2014 lows- 7682-7706 key support
  • Break targets support objectives at 7585-7602, 7535 & 7454/69
  • Extended break targets at 7380-7400 & 7336/44
  • Resistance 7792, 7840- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets objectives at 7973, 8053 & 8122/37
  • Daily RSI turn ahead of 50 / break sub 40- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: New Zealand Employment Change & China HSBC Services/Composite PMI Tomorrow evening and US ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

NZD/USD 30min Chart

NZDUSD Scalps Target 2013 Low- Breakdown Risk Below 7800

Notes: The kiwi is coming into a key area of support to open November trade and the focus is on the region between the September 2014 and the 2013 lows at 7682-7706. The pair continues to trade within the confines of a well-defined Andrew’s Pitchfork formation off the October high with our near-term bias weighted to the downside while below today’s high. Note that we are sitting on the pitchfork bisector and we’ll look for a reaction off this mark, noting that a break below further validates our directional bias to open the month.

Bottom line: looking to sell rallies while below the initial weekly opening range high at 7792 with only a breach above pitchfork resistance / monthly pivot at 7830/40 invalidating our near-term outlook. Be on the lookout for a break sub 7682 with such a scenario likely to see accelerated losses for the kiwi. Caution is warranted heading into key event risk this week with the New Zealand employment change & China PMI figures due out ahead of Friday’s NFP Employment report. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1



100% Extension / Asia Low

Resistance Target 2

Daily / 30min


Weekly ORH / 76.4% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


61.8% Ext / Monthly Central Pivot / TL Resistance

Break Target 1



Friday’s High / Pivot

Break Target 2



R1 Monthly Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


Last Week’s High / 23.6% Retracement

Break Target 4



R2 Monthly / February Low / October high

Support Target 1

Daily / 30min


September Low / S1 Monthly / ~Pitchfork Bisector

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


2013 Low

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


1.382% Ext / 2009 High / S2 monthly

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

7586 – 7602

38.2% & 1.618% Ext(s)

Break Target 3



2012 Low Day Close

Break Target 4



2012 Low / 50% Extension

Break Target 5



S3 Monthly Pivot

Break Target 6



200% Extension

Break Target 7



38.2% Retrace / 61.8% & 2.618% Ext(s)

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 24-27pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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