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Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660

Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD October opening range taking shape just above 2014 low
  • Key support 8660- bullish invalidation
  • Key resistance 8820/33- bearish invalidation
  • Resistance breach targets objectives at 8887, 8931 & 9020
  • Support break keeps broader downtrend in play
  • Support objectives at 8576, 8541 & Pitchfork support ~8511
  • Daily RSI divergence at the lows- constructive
  • April momentum trigger pending / 40-breach - constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: Australian Employment Change tonight

AUD/USD 30min Chart

Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660

Notes: The Aussie has set a clear and well-defined opening range to kick off October and the focus remains on the region between 8641/60 – 8820/33. Note that slight RSI divergence on the daily chart has us favoring long-scalps while within this range with a topside break (close basis) above keeping our directional bias in play as we head deeper into October trade.

Bottom line: we’ll favor buying dips while above the weekly opening range low with a break below invalidating our bias and shifting the focus back to the short-side of the pair. It’s important to keep in mind we would ultimately look to sell this rally as the broader downtrend off the 2011 highs remains in focus. Note that there is significant event risk on tap tonight with the release of the Australian employment report. As such caution is warranted heading into the data with the print likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8820/33

Oct ORH / Weekly ORH / 23.6% Retrace

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

8887

March Low / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8931

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

8973/82

61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Ext

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

9021

50% Retracement

Break Target 5

30min

9050

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 6

30min

9080/85

Soft Resistance / Jan, Feb Highs

Break Target 7

Daily / 30min

9111

61.8% Retrace / Sept Swing High

Support Target 1

30min

8737

50% Retrace of Monthly Range

Support Target 2

Daily / 30min

8685

61.8% Extension

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8641/60

Oct ORL / Weekly ORL / 38.2% Retracement

Break Target 1

Daily

8576

Jan 2010 Low / Soft Support

Break Target 2

Daily

8541

50% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily

8511/18

Jan 2008 Low / Sept 2008 High

Average True Range

Daily (20)

99

Profit Targets 22-25pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday – Thursdays on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

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