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Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDCHF outside reversal day / rebound off 2014 trendline support
  • Weekly opening range breach takes pair into key inflection level
  • Event risk on tap this week

AUD/CHF Daily Chart

Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDCHF responds to 2014 trendline support / outside reversal day– bullish
  • Resistance at 8350/60- scalp bias bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 8450, 8500/11 & 8545
  • Support at 8267/70- bullish invalidation
  • Break targets support objectives at 8202/30 & 8111/15
  • Daily RSI divergence on a hold above 40 threshold- constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: China Manufacturing PMI & Australian Retail Sales tonight and Australian Trade Balance & Building Approvals on Wednesday

AUD/CHF 30min Chart

Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

Notes: Back on September 11th we highlighted a key inflection zone in the AUDCHF at 8499-8511 while noting that, “a daily close below keeps the focus weighted to the short-side of the trade with support objectives seen lower at the 100-day moving average (~8400) and 8350/60.” The pair has since taken out both profit objectives before rebounding off a trendline support dating back to the 2014 low. A break of the initial weekly opening range high today and a key outside day reversal candle has shifted our near-term focus back to the topside.

The pair now stands just below the 8350/60 inflection zone and we will use this level as our near-term bearish invalidation level. Bottom line: looking to buy pullbacks while above the 2014 trendline support with only a break below this week’s opening range low at 8267/71 invalidating our directional bias. Caution is warranted on this pair heading into the close of the month/quarter with event risk out of Australia & China tonight likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


38.2% & 61.8% Retracement(s)

Break Target 1



23.6% Retracement

Break Target 2



100% Extension August High

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


Soft Resistance / Monthly S1 Pivot (8438)

Break Target 4



38.2% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min


23.6 & 76.4% Retrace(s) / Monthly Central Pivot

Support Target 1



Initial Weekly ORH

Support Target 2



Soft Support / Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


Sept Low / 1.618% Extension / TL Support

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


50% Retrace / 200DMA

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


January High

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


April, May Lows / 61.8% Retrace / S3 Monthly

Break Target 4



March Swing High / 2.618% Extension

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 20-22pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week on Monday on DailyFX and Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.