We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfNXyS https://t.co/OVhyNgLRn5
GBPAUD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance - Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.8444

GBPAUD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance - Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.8444

2014-09-22 19:55:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

GBP/AUD Daily Chart

GBPAUD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance - Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.8444

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPAUD Testing key resistance range 1.8392 – 1.8433- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.8526, 1.8723/63, 1.8969 & 1.0989
  • Key support 1.8175- 1.8211- bullish invalidation
  • Break targets support objectives at 1.7860, 1.7756
  • Daily RSI breach above 60- constructive
  • First directional breach of 60-threshold since November 20th- bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: China Manufacturing PMI tonight, RBA Steven’s Remarks at Melbourne Economic Forum on Wednesday, BoE’sCarney speech in Wales on Thursday

GBP/AUD 30min Chart

GBPAUD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance - Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.8444

Notes: The GBPAUD is trading within the confines of an ascending Andrew’s Pitchfork formation off the September low. Although our medium-term bias remains weighted to the topside on account of the break of the monthly opening range, the pair has now come into a key resistance region between 1.833/44. Intra-day divergence along the highs here suggests that long-exposure below this region is now vulnerable and if we close sub-1.8433, we’ll be looking to play near-term shorts into pitchfork support. Inevitably we will look to buy this pair lower down with only a break below key support at 1.8175-1.8200 invalidating medium-term bias.

Bottom line: look for a reaction of this level with short triggers in momentum sub-1.8444 favoring near-term short-scalps. A breach above keeps the long focus in play with such a scenario targeting subsequent topside resistance objectives into fresh 6-month highs. Note that there is some event risk on this week with China manufacturing PMI numbers tonight and speeches from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens & BoE Governor Mark Carney later in the week likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie and Sterling crosses. The average true range here is rather healthy with a quarter of the daily ATR suggesting profit targets of roughly 40pips. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.8433/44

61.8% Ext / 2.618% Ext

Bearish Invalidation

30min

1.8475

September High

Break Target 1

30min

1.8500

Soft Resistance / Big Figure

Break Target 2

30min

1.8526/37

Monthly R1 / 78.6% Ext

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.8600

Big Figure / March Swing High

Break Target 4

30min

1.8691

Soft Resistance / Jan 2nd Swing High

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.8722/63

78.6% Retracement / 100% Ext

Support Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.8392

61.8 Extension

Support Target 2

30min

1.8320

50% Retracement

Support Target 3

30min

1.8289

61.8% Retrace / ~Pitchfork Support

Support Target 4

30min

1.8245

78.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.8175 – 1.8211

Wkly ORL / 200DMA / Aug & June High / 50% Retrace / Central Pivot

Break Target 1

30min

1.8125

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

1.8078

Last Week’s ORH

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.7993 – 1.800

38.2% Retrace / Big Figure

Average True Range

Daily (20)

163

Profit Targets 37-41pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this Tuesday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.