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AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range - 1.1020 Critical Support

AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range - 1.1020 Critical Support

2014-09-18 17:28:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Talking Points

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range - 1.1020 Critical Support

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD at key support zone 1.1020/35- bullish invalidation
  • Support break targets objectives at 1.0957, 1.0878-1.0906, 1.0826
  • Resistance at weekly opening range high / Fibonacci confluence 1.1100
  • Breach targets 1.1160, 1.1200, 1.1267/96- bearish invalidation
  • Daily RSI straddling 50- neutral
  • Look for momentum rebound ahead of 40 to remain constructive
  • Limited event risk heading into weekend.

AUD/NZD 30min Chart

AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range - 1.1020 Critical Support

Notes: The AUDNZD has been trading within a well-defined Andrew’s Pitchfork off the September high with the weekly opening range taking shape just above a key infection region at 1.2023/35. Note that within this support zone rests the bisector of a broader ascending pitchfork formation off the 2014 low and as such, we will reserve this threshold as our near-term bullish invalidation level. The Sunday gap-open has been filled and the play here is a break out of the gap-range which is define by 1.1022 – 1.1100.

Bottom line: looking for a break of the weekly opening range with our near-term bias favoring buying dips while above 1.1022/35 with a breach above 1.11 offering further conviction for long-side exposure. Note that the average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll increase the profit targets to 1/3 of the daily ATR- this puts us at approximately 22pips per scalp.Event risk is limited heading into the weekend and we’ll look for broader market sentiment for guidance. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.1075

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.1100

Weekly ORH / 61.8% Ext

Break Target 1

30min

1.1125

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.1157/63

100% Ext / 50% & 61.8% Retracement(s)

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.1190/99

August Low / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

1.1235

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.1263/66

1.618% Ext / 88.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.1023/35

100% Ext / 38.2% & 50% Retracement(s)

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.10

S1 Monthly / 50DMA

Break Target 2

30min

1.0982

May High / Soft Support

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.0955/57

50% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

1.0925

August Close Low / S2 Monthly

Break Target 5

Daily

1.0878- 1.0906

38.2% & 61.8% Retrace(s) / 1.618% Ext / 100DMA

Average True Range

Daily (20)

64

Profit Targets 19-22pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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