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EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD short bias at risk ahead of key support 1.2895 – 1.2903
  • Scalp bias invalidation at 1.2980/86- breach targets 1.3018/20 (monthly bias invalidation)
  • Subsequent resistance objectives at 1.3158 & 1.3205/27- key resistance
  • Support break sub-1.2895 targets objectives at 1.2787, 1.2743 & 1.2660
  • Daily RSI resistance triggers pending- break would suggest recovery
  • Momentum signature holding sub 30- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: US & Eurozone Consumer Price Index(s) & FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday, US Building Permits, Housing Starts on Thursday

EURUSD 30min Chart

EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

Notes: The EURUSD decline has failed to close below key near-term support at 1.2895-1.2905 and the short-bias is at risk while above this threshold. Interim resistance stands just above the weekly opening range high / last week’s highs at 1.2980/86 and a breach above shifts the scalp bias higher targeting a Fibonacci confluence at 1.3018/20- a level if overtaken shifts the monthly bias back into neutral while below the September high at 1.3158.

Bottom line: looking for a break last week’s range with a breach above 1.3020 shifting the focus back to the September highs. Our broader outlook remains weighted to the short-side while below 1.3227 with a break/close sub-1.2895 targeting support objectives into the 2013 lows. Caution is warranted heading into significant event risk this week with Wednesday specifically likely to fuel added volatility in USD crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1



61.8% Extension

Bearish Invalidation



1.618% & 100% Fib Extension(s)

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


78.6% & 50% Retrace(s) / 1.382% Ext

Break Target 2



61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Ext

Break Target 3



78.6% Retracement / H&S Objective

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


September ORH

Break Target 5



100% Ext / 61.8% Retrace / (1.3238 Gap Fill)

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.2895 – 1.29

88.6% Retracement / 1.618% Ext

Break Target 1



2.618% Extension / 2014 Low

Break Target 2



Psychological Barrier / Soft Support

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


61.8% Retracement (2012 Lows)

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


2013 Low / June 2012 High

Break Target 5



200% Extension

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 18-20pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.