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AUDCHF Monthly Opening Range Setup- Scalps Target Key Support

AUDCHF Monthly Opening Range Setup- Scalps Target Key Support

2014-09-11 20:17:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Talking Points

AUDCHF Daily Chart

AUDCHF Monthly Opening Range Setup- Scalps Target Key Support

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDCHF testing key support / September opening range low 8499-8514
  • Bullishinvalidation with break below channel support
  • Support objectives at 8396, 8350/60 & 8202/30
  • Resistance at 8637- Scalp bias bearish invalidation
  • Breach above key resistance at 8725/55 puts broader rally off Jan lows back into focus
  • Resistance objectives at 8800, 8861 & 8963
  • Daily RSI break sub 50- bearish
  • Momentum bounce at 40 keeps broader topside bias in play- constructive
  • Limited Event Risk into close of the week

AUDCHF 30min Chart

AUDCHF Monthly Opening Range Setup- Scalps Target Key Support

Notes: The AUDCHF has come into a major inflection region defined by the September opening range low, the central monthly pivot, the 2013 June lows and the 23.6% & 76.4% retracements at 8499-8511. Channel support off the May lows comes in just lower and will serve as our near-term bullish invalidation level. A daily close below keeps the focus weighted to the short-side of the trade with support objectives seen lower at the 100-day moving average and 8350/60.

Note that the daily momentum signature has remained constructive since February with a daily break below the 40-threshold suggesting that a larger correction off this month’s highs may be in the cards. An outside day today alongside some near-term divergence may be a sign of near-term exhaustion as we test key resistance here.

Bottom line: looking to sell rallies while below 8637 with a break below channel support targeting subsequent support objectives. A breach above 8367 shifts the focus back onto the monthly highs / key resistance at 8738/55 (broader monthly bearish invalidation level).

Note that the average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll increase the profit targets to 1/3 of the daily ATR- this puts us at approximately 20-22pips per scalp. There will be limited event risk for the pair this week and as such we’ll look for broader market sentiment to drive price action. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

8544/48

July High / 1.618% Ext

Resistance Target 2

30min

8586

2013 August High / Soft Resistance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8637

88.6% Retrace / R1 Pivot

Break Target 1

30min

8659

Weekly ORL

Break Target 2

30min

8708

R2 Monthly

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

8738/55

Sept ORH / 38.2% Retrace / Nov 2013 High

Break Target 4

Daily

8861

2010 Low

Break Target 5

Daily

8963

2013 July High

Support Target 1

Daily / 30min

8499 – 8514

23.6%, 61.8% & 76.4% Retrace(s) / Sept ORL / Central Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8479

~ Channel Support / June High

Break Target 1

30min

8454

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8396/99

Sept 2013 Low / Pivot / 100DMA

Break Target 3

30min

8376

August Low

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

8351/61

38.2% & 61.8% Retracements

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

8306

~ 2014 TL Support / S2 Monthly Pivot

Average True Range

Daily (20)

64

Profit Targets 20-22pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

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