Never miss a story from Michael Boutros

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Michael Boutros

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points

EURUSD Daily Chart

Key Levels for NFPs - EURUSD, USDJPY & USDOLLAR in Focus

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD focus remains weighted to the downside after weekly opening range break
  • Key support at 1.2893-1.2902, 1.2787 & 1.2743
  • Interim resistance 1.3017/19, 1.3158b & 1.3205/25- bearish invalidation
  • Daily RSI continued to hold in oversold territory- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Eurozone 2Q GDP & US Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow

Notes: Today’s sell-off marks the highest volume day since August of 2012 with momentum now testing its lowest levels since 2008. Near-term we’ll be looking lower while below 1.3017/19 with only breach above 1.3205/25 invalidating our broader outlook. Note that 1.22893-1.2902 represents a key area of support and short exposure into this region is at risk heading into the close of the week. If a rebound materializes off this level we’ll look to sell rallies into the monthly opening range high. A break of the lows targets the key 61.8% retracement off the 2012 low at 1.2787.

USDJPY Daily Chart

Key Levels for NFPs - EURUSD, USDJPY & USDOLLAR in Focus

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDJPY testing key resistance / 2014 High- 105.43/58- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets 106.23, 106.85
  • Interim support 104.78, 104.16/25- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI continues to hold in overbought territory- bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead:US Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow

Notes: The breakaway gap seen at the start of this month pushed the pair through key resistance noted last month at 104.16/25. This level will now serve as our monthly opening range low and we’ll look to buy dips while above this threshold. Look for a breach of the yearly highs to target more critical technical resistance at 106.22/23.

USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Key Levels for NFPs - EURUSD, USDJPY & USDOLLAR in Focus

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index stalling just head of 2014 high
  • Key resistance 10,759/65- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets 10,812, 10,869
  • Interim support 10,663, 10,639 & 10,607/11- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI remains in overbought territory- bullish
  • Ongoing divergence in momentum warns of possible exhaustion- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead:US Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow

Notes: The greenback is trading just pips off the 2014 highs as we head into tomorrow’s highly anticipated US employment report. A breach above a key Fibonacci confluence at 10,759/65 keeps the topside in focus with such a scenario targeting resistance objectives into 10,812. I am weary of these outside reversal days at the highs as momentum continues to show ongoing divergence as it may signal near-term exhaustion. That said, the broader outlook remains constructive above 10,607 we’ll look for tomorrow’s data prints to offer a catalyst in these setups and further clarity on our near-term directional biases.

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video