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AUDJPY Targets Key Resistance - Shorts Favored Sub 96.00

AUDJPY Targets Key Resistance - Shorts Favored Sub 96.00

2014-08-19 19:06:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

AUDJPY Daily Chart

AUDJPY Targets Key Resistance - Shorts Favored Sub 96.00

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY targets key resistance / monthly opening range high 95.81/90- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 96.50, 96.90, 97.50/67
  • Support at 95.45, 95.16- bullish invalidation
  • Subsequent support objectives at 94.46 & 94.05
  • Daily RSI resistance trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Semi-Annual Testimony and Japan Trade Balance data tonight

AUDJPY 30min Chart

AUDJPY Targets Key Resistance - Shorts Favored Sub 96.00

Notes: The AUDJPY is eyeing a key inflection zone that stand just above the August opening range high at 95.81/90. This level is defined by the 78.6% retracement of the decline off the yearly high & a longer-dated 50% retracement of the decline off the April 2013 high and will serve as our near-term bearish invalidation level. Intra-week momentum divergence has shifted the near-term focus lower against this key resistance range with a break below the weekly opening range low needed to validate the near-term directional bias.

We’ll look to sell rallies while below this level with a topside breach/close above shifting our scalp bias into subsequent topside resistance objectives. Note that the average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll increase the profit targets to 1/3 of the daily ATR- this puts us at approximately 17pips per scalp.Caution is warranted heading into event risk out of Australia and Japan tonight with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie and Yen crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

95.90/94

50% & 78.6% Retrace(s)

Break Target 1

30min

96.20

88.6% Retracement / TL Resistance

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

96.50/53

April & July 2014 Highs / R1 Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily

96.90

April 2013 Low

Break Target 4

Daily

97.50/67

1.618% & 100% Ext(s) / R2 Monthly Pivot

Break Target 5

Daily

98.14/15

61.8% Retracement / 61.8% Extension

Support Target 1

30min

95.69

Soft Support / Pivot

Support Target 2

Daily / 30min

95.46/48

50DMA / 23.6% Retrace / TL Support / Monthly Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

30min

95.13/16

Weekly ORL* / 38.2% Retracement

Break Target 1

30min

94.92

50% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

94.69

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

94.39/46

March High / 76.4% Retrace / July Low / S1 Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

93.90-94.05

100% Ext / 200DMA / January High

Break Target5

Daily / 30min

93.76

May 21st Close

Average True Range

Daily (20)

49

Profit Targets 16-18pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

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