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USDCAD Opening Range Play- Key Support in Focus Ahead of Jobs Data

USDCAD Opening Range Play- Key Support in Focus Ahead of Jobs Data

2014-08-14 19:54:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Talking Points

USDCAD Daily Chart

USDCAD Opening Range Play- Key Support in Focus Ahead of Jobs Data

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDCAD approaching key support / August opening range low 1.0870/80
  • Support backed by 100 & 200 DMAs and July trendline support- bullish invalidation
  • Break targets support objectives at 1.0802/14 & 1.0760
  • Resistance at 1.0988 – 1.1005- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 1.1026 & 1.1122
  • Daily RSI resistance trigger pending / Above 50 – constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Employment, Manufacturing & Existing Home Sales and USIndustrial Production & University of Michigan Confidence survey tomorrow

USDCAD 30min Chart

USDCAD Opening Range Play- Key Support in Focus Ahead of Jobs Data

Notes: The USDCAD has been in our sights since the start of the month with the this week’s pullback taking the pair into a critical support range. The focus near-term is on the 1.0880/86 support barrier where a cluster of Fibonacci ratios confluence with the August opening range low and trendline support dating back to the July 11th low. Note that the recent rebound of support today marked a 100% extension off the highs and as such, suggests that the pullback may be corrective in nature. That said, we will be looking to buy dips while above trendline support / August lows with only a move sub-1.0860 shifting the focus back to the short-side of the trade.

The average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll up the profit targets to 38.2% of the daily ATR- this puts us at approximately 19pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into major event risk tomorrow with key employment data out of Canada likely to fuel added volatility in CAD crosses. Note that US data is released at the same time and the combination could offer up some serious moves. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.0912

61.8% Extension

Resistance Target 2

30min

1.0930

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Resistance Target 3

30min

1.0946

61.8% Retracement

Resistance Target 4

30min

1.0962

78.6% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.0988-1.1005

1.618% Ext / August ORH* / May High

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.1026

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily

1.1052

April 23rd Swing High

Break Target 3

Daily

1.1070

April High

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.1122/26

76.4% Retracement / R2 Monthly Pivot

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.0880/86

August ORL* / 100% Ext(s) / April Close Low

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.0860/67

100 & 200 DMA(s) / TL Support

Break Target 2

30min

1.0846

38.2% Retracement / 1.618%% Ext

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

1.0803/14

61.8% Ext / 50% Retrace / May Low / Monthly Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.0760

61.8% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)

109

Profit Targets 27-30pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

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