News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/DSp7f3YuAx
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/HNqHcbL6vk
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTFBxM https://t.co/FbepD4RaFg
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/XS0176LyOg
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/l4UICqJzJy https://t.co/dQ2pS0E4fp
  • Google finance-related search interest in 'Evergrande' has almost overtaken 'Covid'. 'Taper' doesn't even register on the scale https://t.co/P6H9sHFVIB
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/l4kAWDJ2wm https://t.co/b9m5ADIqqb
  • Gold remains higher despite positive Evergrande news out of China. Meanwhile, copper bulls are pushing prices upward as the potential for a housing crisis in China ebbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/TK3MNntBdA https://t.co/14UKjR4w6M
  • GBP/USD has flattened overnight after its strongest rally in a month on Thursday. The British currency has been under pressure recently as an energy crisis has caused a number of gas providers to go bankrupt. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/3D8s2eIVWv https://t.co/JDGNwKYyOn
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sIauS https://t.co/JIT5it2HAt
NZDUSD at Key Support and August Range Low- Exhaustion or Break?

NZDUSD at Key Support and August Range Low- Exhaustion or Break?

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZDUSD August opening range takes shape above technical support
  • Possible key inflection range 8440/50
  • Limited event risk on tap this week

NZDUSD Daily Chart

NZDUSD at Key Support and August Range Low- Exhaustion or Break?

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDUSD testing critical support ranges 8440/50 & 83985-8416bullish invalidation
  • Break targets support objectives at 8350/60, 8259, 8213/24
  • Outside day reversal at the lows may suggest near-term exhaustion- reversal risk
  • Key resistance 8532/35- bearish invalidation
  • Break targets 8567, 8600, 8650
  • Daily RSI holding June lows- possible exhaustion
  • Event Risk Ahead: New Zealand Employment data tonight and US Trade Balance tomorrow

NZDUSD 30min Chart

NZDUSD at Key Support and August Range Low- Exhaustion or Break?

Notes: Back on July 14th we warned of possible exhaustion on the long-side of NZDUSD as the pair approached the 2011 highs around 8840. The subsequent turnover went well beyond all our support objectives and the kiwi now finds itself approaching key support to open August trade. The 8440/50 region is defined by multiple Fibonacci relationships as well as the 200-day moving average and will converge on trendline support dating back to the August 2013 low for the next few days. With the daily momentum signature holding the June lows the risk for a reversal higher builds while above this threshold.

Bottom line: looking for signs of exhaustion with a preference to buy dips near-term while above 8440. A break below this level puts us neutral with a move surpassing 8400 keeping the medium-term focus weighted to the downside heading into August trade. Look for a move surpassing the weekly opening range high / key resistanceat 8532/36 to add conviction on long-side exposure with such a scenario suggesting a more significant low may have been put in this week.

The average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll up the profit targets to 38.2% of the daily ATR- this puts us at about 21pips per scalp. Note that caution is warranted heading into tonight’s data with the event likely to fuel added volatility on kiwi crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

30min

8495

Sunday Low / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8530/36

Weekly ORH / 100% Ext / 38.2% Retrace

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

8565/67

61.8% Retracement / Soft Resistance

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8600/03

61.8% Extension / Monthly Pivot

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

8622/25

100DMA / 50% Extension

Break Target 4

30min

8647/50

38.2% Ext / 23.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

8718/32

7/21 High / R1 Monthly

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8440/50

200DMA / 88.6% & 50% Retrace(s) / TL Support

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

8395/16

June Low & Close Low / 1.618% Ext / 38.2% Retrace

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8351/60

61.8% Retracement / S1 Pivot / April 2013 Low

Break Target 3

Daily

8259

50% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily

8213/24

2008 High / S2 Pivot

Average True Range

Daily (20)

55

Profit Targets 20-22pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES