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AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDNZD rally vulnerable at critical resistance range
  • Weekly / Monthly opening ranges remain constructive
  • Major event risk on tap tonight from New Zealand

AUDNZD Daily Chart

AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDNZD testing key resistance range 1.0875/82
  • Breach targets topside resistance objectives at 1.0906, 1.0945, 1.1007 &1.1027/35
  • Interim support 1.0826, 1.0767- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI trigger/50 breach- constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Trade Balance data tonight

AUDNZD 30min Chart

AUDNZD Rally At Risk Ahead of RBNZ- 1.0880 Key Resistance

Notes: The AUDNZD continues to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation off the July lows and a break of the weekly & monthly opening range highs yesterday keeps the broader focus on the pair weighted to the topside while above this week’s low at 1.0767. That said, building RSI divergence into key resistance at 1.0875/82 leaves the trade vulnerable for a near-term pullback ahead of event risk later tonight.

Bottom line: we’ll favor buying pullbacks in the pair with a breach/close above 1.09 targeting subsequent resistance objectives. A break below 1.0767 invalidates this particular setup with such a scenario risking a deeper correction back towards the January 2014 trendline support.

Caution is warranted heading into the interest rate decision tonight with the event likely to fuel added volatility in kiwi crosses. Look for a reaction to either validate a breach above key resistance or possibly trigger a near-term correction lower to offer more favorable long entries heading into the start of August trade.Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


61.8% Retracement / 61.8% Ext / 200DMA

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


78.6% Retracement

Break Target 3



88.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


2014 High Close

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min


May Close High

Support Target 1

Daily / 30min


50% Retracement / Tues Low

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


Weekly ORL / 38.2% Retracement / 100DMA

Break Target 1



23.6% Retrace / May Swing Low / Dec Close Low

Break Target 2



June Low

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


76.4% Retracement / May Low

Break Target 4



76.4% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 16-19pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.