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NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

2014-07-22 18:44:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • NZDCAD testing key support- June/July range at risk
  • Weekly opening range in focus- break to validate scalp bias
  • Major event risk on tap this tomorrow from New Zealand & Canada

NZDCAD Daily Chart

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDCAD at key range support 9285/91- bullish invalidation
  • Resistance at 9351, 9402, 9468/74- bearish invalidation
  • Support break targets objectives at 9233, 9155/75, 9096
  • Look for daily RSI rebound ahead of 40- constructive
  • Topside momentum trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Retail Sales tomorrow morning and RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Trade Balance data tomorrow evening

NZDCAD 30min Chart

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

Notes: The NZDCAD has held a well-defined range since mid-June and the pair is now testing key support at the lower bounds at 9285/90. This threshold is defined by the July opening rang low, the 61.8% retracement of the May advance and the 38.2% Fibonacci extension off of the 2014 high and will serve as our bullish invalidation level.

Bottom line: We’ll favor buying dips while above 9285/90 with a breach above the weekly opening range high at 9356/63 offering further conviction on long exposure. A break/close below invalidates this particular setup with such a scenario eyeing subsequent targets into more significant support at 9155/75.

Caution is warranted as we head into event risk tomorrow from both Canada and New Zealand with the RBNZ interest rate decision likely to fuel added volatility in kiwi crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


Weekly ORH / 38.2% Retrace / April Low

Break Target 1



50% Retracement

Break Target 2



100 DMA / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3



78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


61.8% Retracement / 61.8% Ext / June & July High

Break Target 5



May Close High

Break Target 6



May High / 100% Ext

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


July ORL / 61.8% Retrace / 38.2% Ext

Break Target 1



Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


78.6% Retracement / 50% Ext

Break Target 3



88.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


61.8% Ext / 50% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 14-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.