We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/mk1w1DM2Rh https://t.co/rEVhCnC0vY
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia here: https://t.co/r3Ku0p9dw1 https://t.co/I1AA0UEyWq
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/o4zt4pmSzc
  • The $USDINR may fall as the Nifty 50 rises after the US and China avoided tariff escalation and Indian CPI increased at its fastest pace since July 2016 amid on onion shortage. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/iXLf98geXL https://t.co/uVwbkkkl09
  • My weekend trading video: 'A #Dow and Yuan Retreat Could Break 2019's Bullish Complacency' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/14/A-Dow-and-Yuan-Retreat-Could-Break-Break-2019s-Bullish-Complacency.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719
  • The $USD may extend declines against its ASEAN counterparts after the Fed rate decision. The Philippine Peso and Singapore Dollar are attempting key technical breakouts. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JoPLb4Oi2q https://t.co/fKzeBlWaCx
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/Mf9e1cgWmR
  • The #Euro jumped higher to challenge range resistance capping upside progress since mid-October. Signs of ebbing momentum warn it may be back on defense soon. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/MGqVDEWhUD https://t.co/rQRxJAmLWi
  • RT @zerohedge: Is The Market Up This Week? Just Ask The Fed's Balance Sheet https://t.co/6p01J9yAZ8
  • $USD: "The US Dollar is making a last-ditch effort to cling onto a key technical support level after dropping 3% from its 2019 high as risk appetite roars and the Fed inflates its balance sheet." - via @DailyFX Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2019/12/14/us-dollar-outlook-fx-volatility-rising-from-extreme-lows-usd-levels-to-watch.html https://t.co/87cITJPVQa
NZDUSD Opening Range Setup- Rally Vulnerable Sub 8850

NZDUSD Opening Range Setup- Rally Vulnerable Sub 8850

2014-07-14 19:22:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • NZDUSD stalls ahead of Record Highs
  • Rally vulnerable sub 8850- interim support 8790
  • Major Event Risk on tap from US, New Zealand this week

NZDUSD Daily Chart

NZDUSD Opening Range Setup- Rally Vulnerable Sub 8850

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDUSD fails ahead of all-time highs- Rally at risk Sub 8850
  • Interim support 8790- break targets channel support, July ORL (bullish invalidation)
  • Subsequent support objectives 8669, 8618
  • Key resistance 8841/51- bearish invalidation
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 8911, 8973, 9130
  • Ongoing divergence in daily momentum signature- bearish
  • RSI break back below former resistance trigger to confirm reversal
  • Event Risk Ahead: US Retail Salesand New Zealand CPI tomorrow, Humphrey Hawkins Testimony Tues/Wed and RBNZ rate decision next week

NZDUSD 30min Chart

NZDUSD Opening Range Setup- Rally Vulnerable Sub 8850

Notes: Last month we highlighted the break-out potential in NZDUSD with a decisive and deliberate breach above the monthly opening range highs confirming our topside bias into the close of June trade. The pair has since taken out all our resistance objectives before failing just ahead of the record all-time highs set back in 2011 at 8841.

The focus now falls on the weekly opening range as we hold just below this key resistance threshold with the pair continuing to trade into the apex of a consolidation pattern off last week’s highs. While these triangle formations will often be continuation patterns, we’ll remain nimble on a breach scenario and a run on that record high may be on the cards before turning over.

Bottom line: although the broader bias remains weighted to the topside, near-term the pair remains vulnerable below key resistance at 8841/51 and we’ll look to play the breakout of this consolidation pattern. A break below near-term support at 8790 shifts the focus lower heading into the close of the week with objectives eyed at channel support and the monthly range low at 8712. We will reserve this as our medium-term bullish invalidation with a break below suggesting a more significant high may have been put in last week. A breach/close above the July high keeps the topside bias in play with targets eyeing fresh record highs around 8911 and 8973.

Keep in mind the daily ATR is rather tight here and as such we’ll remain nimble ahead of the weekly range break / major event risk. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

30min

8806

23.6% Retracement / European ORL

Resistance Target 2

30min

8825

1.618% Ext / Weekly ORH

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8841/51

2011 High / 61.8% Extension

Break Target 1

Daily

8911

100% Extension

Break Target 2

Daily

8973

78.6% Extension

Break Target 3

Daily

9129

100% Extension

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8788/90

100% & 1.618% Ext(s) / 38.2% Retrace / July ORH

Break Target 1

30min

8774

50% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

8759

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

8740

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

8712

July ORL

Break Target 5

Daily

8669

38.2% Retracement / Pivot

Break Target 6

Daily

8618

50% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)

49

Profit Targets 13-15pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1500 GMT (11ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.