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AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360

AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360

2014-06-26 20:27:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • AUDCHF testing key inflection point
  • Scalp bias bullish above 8357/60
  • Event risk on from Australia next week

AUDCHF Daily Chart

AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDCHF rebounds off key support 8357/60- Near-term bullish invalidation
  • Topside resistance objectives at June TL resistance, 8479 & 8534/45
  • Support break risks correction into 8276/93- broader bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI rebound ahead of 50- constructive
  • Event Risk Ahead: RBA Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday

AUDCHF 30min Chart

AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360

Notes: The rebound off key support at the confluence of the 100% extension off the monthly high and the 61.8% retracement off the monthly low has been well received and keeps our directional bias weighted to the topside near-term. Note that the weekly opening range low is now serving as resistance and a move beyond this mark is needed to invalidate weekly downtrend.

Bottom line: We’ll favor buying dips while above 8357 targeting the monthly highs. Our scalp bias is invalidated with a break below this threshold with the broader outlook remaining weighted to the topside while above the June lows at 8276. Event risk for the pair mounts on July 1st with the RBA interest rate decision and could fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

30min

8418

50% Retracement / Weekly ORL

Resistance Target 2

30min

8432/38

61.8% Retracement / Sunday Low

Bearish Invalidation

30min

8453/60

78.6% Retracement / Weekly ORH

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

8479

June High / June 2004 Low

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8534/45

1.618% Ext / 78.6% Retracement

Break Target 3

Daily

8653

November High Close

Break Target 1

Daily

8755

November High

Support Target 1

30min

8377/82

61.8% & 50% Retracement(s)

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

8353/60

61.8% Retrace(s) / 100% Ext / Weekly Low

Break Target 1

30min

8320

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

8293

1.618% Extension

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

8276

June Low

Break Target 4

Daily

8237

200DMA

Average True Range

Daily (20)

58

Profit Targets 15-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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