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AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDJPY testing major resistance just below 2014 highs
  • Monthly opening range set 94.27 – 96.11
  • Event risk on tap from Japan & China tonight

AUDJPY Daily Chart

AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY at critical Fibonacci resistance barrier 95.67/90
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 96.50, 96.89 & 97.50/67
  • Support at 95.10, 94.27/55 (bullish invalidation) , 92.95-93.34
  • Daily RSI bearish support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: BoJ Interest Rate Decision and China Retail Sales & Industrial Production tonight

AUDJPY Scalp Chart

AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

Notes: Although the yen has not been in our sights for some time now, the AUDJPY has come into a critical area of resistance just below the 2014 highs at 96.50. Intra-week RSI divergence followed by a support trigger-break earlier today immediately our bias to the short side of the pair against Fibonacci resistance at 96.06/10. Note that aside from the Aussie employment spike, the pair has continued to hold within the confines of the weekly opening range and a break/close is needed to validate our near-term directional bias.

Bottom line: the rally is vulnerable here at near-term resistance and the risk for further losses remains while below the 96-handle. Look for a break of the weekly low to offer conviction on short exposure with a breach above the June high putting the broader trend back into focus targeting the 2014 high and beyond into 97.50/67. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min


1.618% Ext / 50% & 88.6% Retrace

Resistance Target 2



Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


2014 High

Break Target 1



April Low / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


100&, 1.618% & 2.618% Extension(s)

Break Target 3



61.8% Retracement

Support Target 1



78.6% Retracement

Support Target 2



Weekly ORL

Bullish Invalidation



23.6% Retracement / Swing Low

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


50DMA / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2



38.2% Retracement

Break Target 3



Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


50% Retrace / 61.8% Ext

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 14-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week on Monday on DailyFX and Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.