News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance

USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • USDCAD breakout now at interim resistance
  • Risk of near-term reversal heading into close of week
  • Major Event Risk on tap from US & Canada

USDCAD Daily Chart

USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDCAD testing near-term resistance 1.0943/50
  • Breach targets topside resistance objectives at 1.0990, 1.1028/45- bearish invalidation
  • Interim support at former trendline resistance, 1.0851/60- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI break above multi-month resistance trigger / 50 breach - bullish
  • Major Event Risk Ahead: US Non-farm Payrolls & Canadian Employment on Friday morning

USDCAD Scalp Chart

USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance

Notes: A rally back above 1.0860 early in the week and a clean break of the weekly opening range high at 1.09 on Tuesday shifted our scalp bias to the topside for the USDCAD. However the pair is now testing a key resistance range ahead of major event risk this week with intra-day RSI divergence at the highs warning of possible near-term exhaustion.

Bottom line: although the broader outlook is weighted to the topside, our immediate focus is against the 1.0950/60 resistance zone with the one-two NFP/Canadian Employment punch on Friday likely to offer a catalyst for either a correction lower or a definitive breach and continuation through 1.0960. Keep in mind we are just putting in the June opening range and our base-case scenario is for a near-term pullback in the greenback heading into the start of the month. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


100% Ext / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.0990 – 1.10

38.2% & 78.6% Retracement(s)

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


1.618% Ext / 50% Retrace / April Highs

Break Target 3



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 4



78.6% Retracement / January Close High

Support Target 1



23.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation



38.2% Retrace / Weekly ORH

Break Target 1



50% Retracement

Break Target 2



61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3



38.2% & 61.8% Retrace(s) / April Low

Break Target 4



61.8% & 88.6% Retrace(s) / Weekly ORL

Break Target 5



61.8% Extension

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 13-15pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars Thursday this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.