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EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus

EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • EURUSD weekly/monthly opening range in focus
  • Risk of near-term recovery heading into June trade
  • Major event risk on tap from Europe & US this week

EURUSD Weekly Chart

EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD Monthly opening range taking shape between 200DMA and May low
  • Support 1.3586 – break targets objectives at 1.3520/32, 1.3476- bullish invalidation
  • Resistance 1.3640- break targets 1.3740- bearish invalidation
  • Daily RSI break sub-40 last month for the first time this year- bearish
  • Key Event Risk Ahead- ECB Rate Decision on Thursday and US Non-farm Payrolls on Friday

EURUSD Scalp Chart

EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus

Notes: The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape heading into major event risk for the EURUSD later this week. The range in focus is defined by the May low and the 200DMA at 1.3885 -1.3640 and we’ll look for a break of this range to offer conviction on a near-term directional bias. Note that near-term RSI divergence heading into last month’s low has our immediate focus higher against 1.3585 with a topside trigger pending heading into the close of US trade.

The decline off the May high has been quite impressive and our base-case scenario looks for a near-term low to buy into heading deeper into June trade. The broader outlook remains weighted to the downside sub-1.3740 which represents the confluence to the 38.2% retracement off the early high and the 100DMA. Bottom line: looking for a break of the weekly opening range to validate our near-term bias heading into the start of June trade. Use caution heading into the ECB / NFPs later this week with an uptick in volatility likely offer a catalyst for the pair. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets



Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1



Soft Resistance / Asia ORL

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


200DMA / Weekly ORH

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min


61.8% & 23.6% Retrace(s) / April Low

Break Target 2



Feb 2013 High

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


5/19 Weekly High / 38.2% Retrace / 100DMA

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


May Low / 78.6% Retracement

Break Target 1



61.8% Retrace / Swing Low 2/12

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


38.2% & 23.6% Retracement(s) / Dec Low

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


2014 Low / Oct 2013 Low / 2012 High

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 15-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for a Live Scalping Webinar Thursday this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.