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GBPNZD Scalps Target May Opening Range Break- Bullish Above 1.96

GBPNZD Scalps Target May Opening Range Break- Bullish Above 1.96

2014-05-21 20:33:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Talking Points

  • GBPNZD clears resistance / 200DMA- Scalp bias bullish
  • Pair now at resistance- looking to buy dips while above 1.96
  • Major event risk tomorrow from the UK

GBPNZD Daily Chart

GBPNZD Scalps Target May Opening Range Break- Bullish Above 1.96

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPNZD breaks above key resistance / May opening range high- bullish
  • Resistance objectives 1.9757, ~ 1.9840 (TL resistance) & 1.9895-1.9916
  • Support now at 1.9600/26, 1.9432/53- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI resistance trigger break dating back to 2013- bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: UK 1Q GDP Tomorrow

GBPNZD Scalp Chart

GBPNZD Scalps Target May Opening Range Break- Bullish Above 1.96

Notes: The GBPNZD has posted an impressive rally off the May lows with the pair taking out key resistance & the monthly opening range this week. Interim resistance stands at 1.9757 which is defined by the 50% retracement of the descent off the 2014 high as well as the April high (1.9759) and a breach above this mark further validates our broader bias.

Intra-day RSI divergence at the highs and a clear support trigger in momentum has our immediate focus weighted to the downside against 1.9757 at the close of US trade. Bottom line: look to buy pullback’s in the pair heading into the close of the month while above the 1.9647/66 with only a break below the 1.96-handle invalidating our near-term directional bias. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.9757

50% Retracement / April High

Break Target 1

30min

1.9800/11

Big Figure / 1.618% Fib Extension

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

~1.9840

TL Resistance (Support Mirror)

Break Target 3

30min

1.9875

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.9895 – 1.9916

61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Ext

Support Target 1

30min

1.9705

Soft Support / NY Session Low

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.9648/66

23.6% Retrace / 100% Ext / 100DMA

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.9598 - 1.9609

38.2% Retracement / 200DMA

Break Target 2

30min

1.9576

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

1.9518

50% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

1.9460

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 5

30min

1.9430

Weekly ORL

Average True Range

Daily (20)

137

Profit Targets 32-35pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinar on Thursday this week on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 15:30 GMT (11:30ET)

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